FUTURE SCENARIOS OF SCHOOLING IN PAKISTAN IN THE YEAR 2030

INTRODUCTION
Scenario planning is the process which helps individuals or organizations to understand the present trends and portray their probable futures based on these trends (OECD, 2001). Being the Course Participants (CPs) of Strategic Planning and Development the CPs were provided with an opportunity to develop the basic understanding of scenario planning by being evolved in scenario planning process. During this process our group went through different stages and activities while developing four different future scenarios of schooling in the Pakistan in the year 2030. Some key processes/activities were the following.
• Literature was reviewed on scenario planning and discussions among group members as well as with the facilitator developed the initial understanding of scenario planning.
• The present trends of education in Pakistan were sketched through a brainstorming in the group and the local and global factors effecting the present educational system was looked upon (See appendix A).
• An individual activity to indentify future trends and forces was undertaken, shared in the group and categorized into ten themes (see appendix B).
• On the basis of the identified themes, a questionnaire (see appendix C) was prepared to explore the opinion of the IED faculty, Ph D and M Ed students about future trends of education in Pakistan.
• After administrating the questionnaire the data was analyzed using SPSS.
Based on the literature, discussions and the analyzed data, the group developed four future scenarios of education in Pakistan in the year 2030. During this process the group identified various forces and trends of education. However keeping in view the time and word limit, only two forces; political will and ICT were taken as the bases of the changing scenario of education in future. Based on the present scenario some focused trends were curriculum, teaching, assessment and use of ICT in schools.

SCENARIO 1


FROZEN AND STAGNATION


The education system of Pakistan is in stagnation phase in the current year of 2030. Schools in Pakistan are controlled by the central education offices in a bureaucratic top down system. It is essential for every school to follow the national curriculum prepared by experts. Schools are restricted to teach the prescribed text books and learning materials. Teachers are trained in content and pedagogy in the light of national curriculum. Few teaching methods are used in the classroom and lecture is the most popular method. Teaching is focused mostly on memorization of facts and figures and paper-pencil test is the most used method for students’ assessment. Competition among the students is highly encouraged by the teachers and school management based on their results. Discipline is the main concern for the school management so teachers spend most of their time controlling the students. Schools are provided with computers and some basic ICT facilities by the higher authorities. However, most of the teachers are not sure how to use these facilities as part of their teaching process. So computer and ICT are taught as separate subjects. The schools are provided some budget from the higher offices but the school management is not able how and where to utilize the budget.
Looking and reflecting back at this frozen and stagnation phase identifies some factors responsible for its non-changing status. Since the year 2010, no political party could complete their tenure smoothly due to allegation of corruption and agitations which created instability in the political arena. Each Government spent most of their time, resources and energy to combat terrorism and at the same time they were facing pressure from the international community. At the provincial level separatist movements were raising heads and the governments also remained engaged in the tackling this issue.
In such a situation the educational system remained ignored most of the time but some attempts were made to bring reforms by each government. Due to instability, no government got enough time to implement their educational policy properly. Each time change in government disrupt the continuity of educational policy as each one brought their interventions without giving considerable attention to the previous governments efforts. In the year 2015, with the help of international agencies, an attempt was made to bring changes in the curriculum but the strong forces of the religious parties were successful in mobilizing the people to resist the changes. Hence the intervention in the curriculum process was winded up without any result. At the same time the government also did not take much interest as the centralized system of curriculum was considered to be minimizing the difference between the provinces by putting emphasis on certain religious values, hence suppressing the separatist movements. Although the development sector in the country has become dependant on ICT but due to lack of recourse and vision less attention was given to make it part of the educational system.










SCENARIO 2

MELTDOWN AND CHANGING



Some changes have taken place in the educational system of Pakistan from 2010 till the current year of 2030. Today, schools to some extent are involved in the curriculum development, school budget and school development programs. Curriculum is prepared by the curriculum wing but the school managements and teachers are involved in the process through workshops and other online studies. The schools have been allowed to choose their text book keeping in view the students learning outcomes given in the curriculum. Teachers are encouraged to enrich the curriculum using sources like internet, workshops and other related and relevant material. The concept of formative assessment is introduced along with summative assessment. Basic ICT facility is provided almost to all schools but its integration with teaching and learning process is missing. Although teachers are trained in ICT, they are not confident enough to integrate it with the teaching learning process. Professional education is required to enter in the teaching profession in all schools. However, teaching is still not considered as equal to other famous profession as doctor/ Managers, so teachers are no satisfied with their profession and opt for other professions.
Since 2010 the democratic system of government has been governing the country however education has not been their first priority. They spent most of their energy on sustaining the political system and fighting against terror. Some steps were taken to reforms the education in Pakistan but there was not consistency in the implementation due to instability in the democratic government. Due to the differences among the provinces the central government was not comfortable to decentralize the educational system. The international communities have been interested in reforming the curriculum to eliminate the radical thinking in the country. They provided financial and as well as technical support to the government to bring reform the curriculum. This enabled the government to introduce ICT literacy and involving teachers in curriculum enrichment. Because ICT became an integral part of the educational system around the world, so the government provided essential ICT facilities to the schools.



















SCENARIO 3

FLOW AND TRANSITION



Since 2010 Pakistan has transformed desirably its educational system. Today in the year 2030 schools enjoy moderate autonomy in enriching curriculum, preparing their budget and incorporating ICT in their teaching learning process. From the curriculum wing broader goals with guidelines are provided to the school. Schools are free to select their textbooks and learning material according to the broader goals and guidelines provided by the curricular wing. Most schools have their curriculum enrichment unit to help teachers in curriculum enrichment. Teachers are educated in curriculum development and enrichment along with content and pedagogical knowledge. Schools are provided considerable budget according to their needs to fulfill their expenses. ICT is considered the essential facility for each school. By using this facility teachers get their required material easily from other schools or institutions. Students use this facility to enhance their knowledge and skills. Varieties of teaching methods are used in the classroom to teach students. Some activities are ICT based and students to some extent are given freedom to complete their task outside the school classroom. As the curriculum material is prepared by the teachers so assessment is done accordingly by using different strategies.
This transition in the education was possible due to two main forces. Since 2010 Pakistan experienced relatively, political stability. The democratic process got consistency as each party completed their tenure and got the opportunity to rule the country. By 2015 the country succeeded in eliminating terrorism with the help of international community. Realizing the importance of education in transforming the society, the democratic governments made a serious effort to bring effective reforms in the educational system in the light of Vision 2030(Haque, 2006). They changed the educational policy from bureaucratic system to democratic mode by valuing decentralization process. Consistency was also observed in the implementation of educational policies as each government built on the interventions of the previous governments. The civil societies were strengthening which supported the government. School were given more autonomy in preparing their budget, planning their programs and enriching their curriculum.

ICT was introduced in education with a strong intention of bringing the educational system up to a world standard. Keeping in view the importance of the ICT the education policy makers and implementers made effort to make the ICT integral part of school system. Government also provided budget and technical support to the school to install ICT system in their schools with help of international agencies.










SCENARIO 4

HIGH FLOW AND TRANSFORMATION



Today Pakistan has a highly transformed schooling system. Schools are no more name of specific building rather they are complex interconnected systems. Curriculum is not static document rather a changing activity prepared by the teachers keeping in view global and local context. Schools are interconnected through internet across the country therefore teachers are able to learn from each other being part of community of practice. Teacher education is given more importance so teachers are not only well equipped in content and pedagogy but they are also competent enough to guide the students how to mange information in the age of flux and change. Technological innovations and easy access of ICT provided opportunity for students and teachers to use their houses, parks, and internet cafés hotels and vehicles as virtual places for schooling. In this era digital libraries, video conferences, online courses replaced the concept of isolated single place for formal education, called school. Assessment is not more matter of paper pencil test rather students are working on projects outside the school focusing on problem solving. ICT is integral part of assessment. Examinations boards are research centers where the results are being investigated, evaluated qualitatively and quantitatively and schools are provided feedback for further improvement. Students and teachers councils/associations are internationally connected with each other and they are collaboratively working for learning and innovating.
Political confrontation among major Feudal and Elite parties fed up the Pakistani nation and civil society. They realized that the traditional parties could not solve their problems. Consequently voters rejected the traditional parties in general elections held in February 2013. In the election voters supported Secular minded Social Democratic Party of Pakistan (SDPP) which emerges from politically awaked and educated Middle class. SDPP gave a clear vision to nation about all major issues like education, economics, and environment, (locals, regional and international) conflicts.
Education was given high priority to transform the sick society into a highly vibrant one. The budget for education sector was raised up to 10% of GDP. Two main steps were taken to change the educational system. First, teacher education system was given highly importance. With the help of local and international agencies within five years a cohort of teacher educator and school leadership was developed who played a vital role in transforming the educational system.
Secondly, the new government realized that without ICT development in education sector is difficult. So ICT was made integral part of educational system. This step revolutionary changed the shape of educational system of Pakistan.












REFERENCE

EOCD (2001). School for tomorrow: OECD Scenarios retrieved on June 2, 2010 from
www.nfer.ac.uk/emie/inc/fd.asp?user=&doc...schooling-for-tomorrow...

Haque, N. (2006). The Economist Survey of Pakistan 2030. Retrieved on June 8, 2010
From http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Highlights/vision2030.pdf